The economic situation of Austrian bakeries in the summer of 2026 shows two contrasting trends: On the one hand, the mood in the businesses brightens noticeably, while on the other hand, demand remains weak. This is according to the latest economic analysis by KMU Forschung Austria for the second quarter of 2026. The results are based on data from 87 bakeries with a total of 1,885 employees and provide current insights into sales trends, business conditions, and expectations within the industry.

Real sales decline despite higher prices

In the first quarter of 2026, nominal sales at Austrian bakeries were 0.4 percent lower than in the same period of the previous year. The decline is even more pronounced after adjusting for price changes: since sales prices increased by an average of 2.4 percent, this translates to a real decrease in volume of 2.7 percent. The price increases were therefore unable to offset the decline in sales volume.

Developments within the industry vary. 29 percent of businesses achieved sales increases averaging 4.8 percent, while 36 percent suffered sales losses averaging 5.3 percent. For 35 percent, sales remained at the previous year's level.

Private customers remain the most important source of revenue

Nearly all businesses serve private customers. In this segment, 27 percent reported increased sales, while 30 percent recorded declines. Business with commercial customers remained largely stable. The business with public sector clients proved particularly consistent, with 87 percent of companies reporting unchanged sales.

Differences also exist between the individual business units. The traditional business with baked goods and confectionery is developing relatively steadily. In contrast, the trade in complementary products outside the core business remains more challenging, with 44 percent of businesses reporting declining sales.

Business climate improves significantly

While revenue growth remains subdued, assessments of the current business situation show a cautious recovery. In the second quarter of 2026, 14 percent of businesses rated their situation as good, compared to just seven percent in the previous quarter. At the same time, the proportion of companies that rated their situation as poor fell from 32 to 19 percent.

The balance of positive and negative ratings remains slightly negative at minus five percentage points, but sentiment has improved significantly compared to the first quarter. This marks the continuation of a slow stabilization, following years in which the industry repeatedly suffered from rising costs, consumer reluctance, and overall weak consumer demand.

More businesses are reporting rising sales again.

The current sales performance in the second quarter is also somewhat better than at the beginning of the year. Twenty percent of businesses report increased sales compared to the same quarter last year, 62 percent report stable sales, and 18 percent report declines. This results in a slightly positive balance of two percentage points.

However, compared to the second quarter of 2025, the level remains weaker. The data therefore suggests less of a strong recovery and more of a cautious bottoming out within the industry.

Companies are looking somewhat more optimistically towards autumn.

For the third quarter of 2026, 20 percent of the surveyed companies expect rising sales. 64 percent anticipate stable development, while 16 percent expect declining revenues. This improves the overall expectations balance to plus four percentage points.

While this figure is significantly below the previous year's level, it indicates increasing confidence compared to the second quarter. It is noteworthy that bakeries' expectations are developing more favorably than those of the entire trade and craft sector, whose overall outlook remains decidedly negative.

Staffing needs are rising again.

A positive signal is coming from the labor market. For the period from July to September, 23 percent of companies plan to hire additional employees. Only four percent expect staff reductions, while 73 percent intend to maintain their current staffing levels.

On average, this results in a planned increase in employment of 1.6 percent. This figure is significantly higher than in the same quarter of the previous year and indicates that many companies are planning for the long term again, despite subdued demand.

Assessment: The industry is gaining stability, but growth remains stagnant.

The latest economic report paints no picture of a strong upswing, but rather of a gradual stabilization. Sales remain under pressure, particularly in real terms. At the same time, the business climate, expectations, and personnel planning are improving. Many companies seem to assume that the most difficult phase may be over.

For the Austrian baking industry, the crucial factor remains whether consumer demand picks up in the coming months. Only when increased sales volumes complement the recently necessary price adjustments is the economic situation likely to improve sustainably. Until then, the sector remains dependent on strict cost control, efficient management, and strong customer loyalty.

Source: KMU Forschung Austria, Economic Observation Trade and Crafts, Bakers, 2nd Quarter 2026.